Posted on: April 3, 2020 Posted by: vasan Comments: 1

This post intention is to create awareness among Lafayette Parish residents and assist Leaders in Lafayette Parish for planning purposes. The models presented here are based on very limited data that is published by Louisiana Department of Health and CDC. There are many factors that have led to increase in number of cases in Lafayette Parish and the cases reported so far gives us an opportunity to plan and prepare ahead . This post is limiting the models only upto 10 day forecast since at the current rate the numbers look very bleak.

Four models were created within the limits of current rate of Lafayette Parish and US National rate. At this point Lafayette Parish is far away in comparison with National rate. The author do not intend Lafayette Parish to follow any of the models in first place, but in reality we are facing it as this pandemic is challenging our capabilities, resources and patience.

Model Validation based on Current Data
10-day Forecast based on Different rates of infection

For the Table below, the author has taken Hospitalization rate as 1 in 5 and Ventilators required as 1 in 3 Hospital Admissions based on Louisiana Data. The Death rate is taken at national average of 1 in 40 (This is 1 in 30 as per Louisiana data). Model 4 resembles closer to flattening the curve case, although achieving Model 4 is quite optimistic at this point.

Hospital Admits and Ventilators Needed based on Louisiana Department of Health data and Death Numbers are based on National average as of April 2nd, 2020

Since time is a major factor here for this pandemic, the models are a mere tool for us to act quickly if there are gaps in our current methods of control. Since there is a significant lag between identification of cases and the uncertain nature of patients movements within this time period causing the significant increase in number of cases. A suggestion to Lafayette Parish is to come up with isolation centers for in-home covid patients and accommodating them with proper care without straining the hospitals while the numbers are low initially.

If the leaders are thinking in terms of complete lockdown of entire Parish (which is including isolating Lafayette Parish from everybody else) and is something within their control, it might be worth a shot. Lafayette has been in forefront in many aspects nationally and it is a entrepreneurial town with full of talent and ideas. Lets take every action and lead the way that can save lives, families, Parishes, States and Countries.

Come back and check for more updates in coming days and leave your comments and suggestions. All political blaming comments will be removed and valuable suggestions/critics will remain for others to see to have productive discussions.


Srinivasan Ambatipati, PhD

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